what is the probability that the arrow will land on either yellow or purple?
or something like that. and i've been puzzling to myself, because i have a tendency to overthink things, what makes the spinner decide to land on yellow or purple? the standardized-test answer to this is just "probability; there is an equal chance that it will land on each color because each color takes up the same amount of space blah blah blah..." but there has to be a *reason* that the arrow lands where it does. we just aren't perceptive enough to figure it out. no, perceptive isn't the right word...i can't think of a word...a word that means, like, the equivalent of how much detail you can see, but in figuring out logical problems. for example, hawks can see all of you individual eyelashes while sitting on the top of a tree. the trouble is, we can't see or calculate or figure out the minute little chain effects and reactions and reasons for the arrow landing on green or red or orange. but there has to be some reason, even if it's a ridiculous ripple effect that was set off when a rat jumped up and down six hundred years ago (and then gave someone the plague. sorry. off topic.) that's where that meteorological idea of the butterfly effect, that the flapping of a butterfly's wings sets off a disturbance that can snowball into the destruction of planets or whatever. we can't possibly understand with our limited brains the exact process, or at least we can't observe it. yet. that's why we have this idea of 'probability', that events occur for random reasons. there are no chances.
3 comments:
I LOVE thinking about the butterfly effect. one of my favorite things to think about right now, and my last post vaguely relates to it. as for probability... they're not really asking why an arrow would choose to land on a color, its more about how many options does that arrow have in life. :)
and also it's asking the mathematical numbers that say that in a purely correct world, where everything equals something, this is where the arrow will most probably land. that's why I think you're frustrated, because that world is most certainly not this one.
You are overthinking it because you know the expected answer. What you are misunderstanding is that probability is not a measure of reality -- the pointer will land in only one place depending on the force applied to it -- but a measure of what you know. If you nothing about the force applied, for all you know it will land anywhere on the board. That's it.
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